has learned to buy a car, November 12, “the Seventh China and South Korea Automobile Industry Development Seminar” organized by the National Information Center for Information and Development, Industry and Hyundai Motor (China) Investment Co., Ltd. Cooperation (hereinafter referred to as “China and South Korea automobile Forum”) held in Beijing.
It is understood that the forum of “Eastern wisdom, autopilot drive a new era” as the theme. As we all know, the current automotive industry is experiencing an unprecedented large change in order to autopilot core of the intelligent network linking technology is reshaping the entire automotive industry supply chain. China as the world’s largest car producer and the consumer market, how will grasp the opportunity in the automotive industry, “the new four modernizations” Eve degenerated into a future-oriented leader in power? Hyundai Motor Group to become the world’s Top 5 on behalf of the automotive industry, so in the moment of great change in the industry, which in turn how to “future car strategy” as the cornerstone of sustainable development? Forum site, and Korean automotive industry experts, business leaders, as well as guests from Chinese and foreign enterprises also discuss the latest developments and future direction of the automatic driving skills from multiple angles.
event, deputy director of the State Information Center, Xu Changming, from consumer characteristics and urban form two angles, the interpretation of the development potential of China autopilot. He noted that the data show that China’s consumer acceptance of the autopilot was significantly higher than the United States, Germany and other developed countries, and are willing to pay higher fees for the autopilot.
In his view, Chinese consumers behind the autopilot high degree of acceptance, is the rapid development of the digital economy in the field of applications and big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and other leading global companies unicorn layout, paper, talent accumulation. Meanwhile, as China’s auto market younger the target audience, the higher the degree of acceptance of the autopilot 90, after 00 people in the future will be the main buyers, autopilot market will be growing.
From the point of view of urban form, China’s high population density, large-scale population characteristics best suited to the automatic application of driving skills, which is a priori favorable conditions for the development of China autopilot. Chinese urbanization urban morphology and cyclic development, but also will provide plenty of space for China’s autopilot. In addition, the strong government support, China’s level of infrastructure has always been to stay ahead of the world in terms of automated driving, Chinese have the confidence to go on infrastructureIn the world.
Xu Changming, today’s China, has the potential to scale the world’s first automated driving in the field. But autopilot development process, China must solve the problem of hybrid cars and trucks, motor vehicles and non-motorized mixing, improve awareness of traffic rules in order to allow the autopilot to have better development in China.
The following is the speech Record:
Hello everybody morning! I think from the consumer characteristics and urban form, these two perspectives about the potential for the development of our country autopilot.
my speech contains the following three aspects: 1 consumer perspective form a comprehensive perspective 2. Urban 3. Conclusion
consumer perspective, I share with you from three angles: first we take a look at China’s consumer acceptance of the autopilot, and now significantly higher than other countries. I used the data in Germany and the United States compare with China three countries: two graphs on the left is a study from McKinsey right from Deloitte, we can look at their study table, there are three attitudes on autopilot: I do not want to have, not essential, very important. We take a look at US consumers consider important about 16 percentage dispensable in about 54 percentage, is nearly 16 percentage Germany, the two basically very similar. We believe that the country is very important autopilot 49 percentage accounted respondents, about 2 percentage do not want to have, there may be some 49 percentage, we can see Chinese consumer preference for automated driving is higher than the United States and Germany, China consumers are willing to pay for the cost of $ 4600 autopilot, Germany 2900, USA 3900, China is the high. This figure is we think the right proportion autopilot insecure: in 2017 our country about 62 percent of respondents believe that the autopilot unsafe, but the ratio is rapidly reduced to around 25 percentage in the past two years, while other countries, we can look at, think like Japan in 2017 accounted for 79 percentage autopilot unsafe, it is now considered unsafe ratio is declining, but that there are 50 percent people in 2019, that the automatic driving an unsafe car was significantly more than we high, we only have 25 percent of people considered unsafe, while Japan has 50 percentage. South Korea’s situation is not too different, about 49 percent of peopleConsidered unsafe autopilot, India about 48 percentage, 46 percentage Australia, Southeast Asia and other countries, 59 percent of people think autopilot insecurity, which is Deloitte survey data, as well as our national consumer acceptance of automated driving from several a map view, China clearly than any other country on autopilot showed higher preference.
McKinsey and Deloitte survey data, we are also studying why this is a preference. We think about our country mainly in the application and development of the digital economy, especially the development of applications faster, rapid, extensive and profound.
This is a few pictures, the first one on the left of this diagram, 2005-2016 years, which is a retail electricity supplier transactions, in terms of the world, China will account for 42.4 percentage, the United States accounted for about 24.1 percentage, which is the data in 2016, the other countries combined account for about 33.5 percentage, China is relatively high. From the perspective of higher Chinese mobile payment, there are more than 7900 billion in the United States more than 740 million although the data is not the latest, but this trend should be no big difference.
from the new Chinese unicorn number of companies, including accounting terms, are significantly changed, the current development of Chinese companies accounted for 36 percentage of the world unicorn, unicorns company in a foreign country is defined valuation of $ 1 billion. So we are now in 2017 when data on September 28, 36, 41 United States, other countries have gone up a little bit, so this is the last two years China is developing very fast.
Unicorn Company industry sectors in our country with the United States to other countries very different performance characteristics. Most of our country’s companies are big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, associated with the autopilot a little higher. Our valuation of 1 billion US dollars, and now today’s headlines valuation of up to $ 75 billion, is the second bit, science and technology as well as deft Shang Dynasty, we look at the United States, the United States more in financial technology, sales, tourism, supply chain , and our country is artificial intelligence, communications, mobile communications, hardware, software, Internet, etc., are basically based on big data, cloud computing and artificial intelligence associated with other countries, too, why the development of faster, with the development of the industry There are relationships.
Let’s look at a high level output of the 10 countries most AI papers, China has 2300, the United States 2200, United Kingdom dropped to 800, which is a paper on artificial intelligence.
the largest number of artificial intelligence personnel in 10 countries, the United States 29,000 United Kingdom 19,000 Germany 10,000 United Kingdom 8000. Why should we be able to automatically drive a car in a relatively high degree of consumer acceptance locations worldwide. , Too much we consumers contact information for everyone, of course, will instill the most, which is characteristic of one aspect.
The second feature, consumers of our country on autopilot awareness and acceptance of vertical longitudinal ratio than with us in raising the left is 2016-2018 data for three years, is well aware of and familiar with its principles and probably well aware of the characteristics, not so much know the basic concepts, we take a look at this ratio, to go upward. The right is on purchase intention of autonomous vehicles, from our survey of the State Information Center, our problem is to ask,: how high your level of interest in driverless cars? Multiple choice, will buy and not buy, we will look at the proportion of buy 2016 to 2019, the percentage of people will buy 2016,31.4 2019 to 39.8 percent of people will buy, which is the proportion willing to buy, we at improving consumer acceptance.
Why will improve? May be two reasons, the first consumer attitude towards the autopilot directly benefit from this change, it is the rapid development and progress of the automatic driving skills, which a picture of it, is a low-level autopilot function, now fast the popularity of the bottom is the LKA, in the middle of a parking assist, then the ACC, AEB, etc. this is something in the field of autonomous driving. Of course, it is only L1 level, the rapid increase in popularity, the concept of consumers in there.
local governments to actively promote high-level automatic test driving a car, and the enterprises are directly involved. The left view, is said to have made our road test of the region, the region can do much, only one city in 2017, 2018, 18 cities, 22 cities in 2019, where 22 areas for testing, and also do more than publish L4 level.
2017-2019 years, the number of cars to issuing licenses in 2017 yet, last year, to a total of 101 licensed cars made this year to 202,The number is increasing.
the number of autonomous vehicles field start-ups, as well as investments in rapid growth. 2016 636, 2019 years 2017, 2018 development, there have been 765 relating to automatic driving such a car company this year. They do this kind of business, from investment is only 6.91 billion yuan in 2016, 2019, 225 billion yuan this year for business investment, funds go in, it will develop. So this is why we consumers change: too much contact with the.
In addition we have a wide range of applications in other fields of artificial intelligence, also contributed to the final drive consumer awareness, autonomous vehicles, artificial intelligence in nature, they are two mutual development, there is no rapid development of artificial intelligence, there would be no automatic driving the rapid development of the car, these two highly correlated.
We now artificial intelligence applications in other fields, it is clear, we look at security, face recognition, public service robots, intelligent education, intelligent speakers, translation, ETC, intelligent manufacturing, health care, etc. These field, this is the rapid development. This change is very fast.
the day before I returned to Beijing from Shanghai, the Shanghai airport now has no screeners, direct that the security machinery into it, turned out to be a smart camera, but have two people assisted, the day before I came back from Shanghai Hongqiao Airport , no one in that security, to check whether your ID card, ID card into the machine off, then checks to go.
now banking, telecommunications, including all angles, both in large-scale application, then the application in our country is much faster than other countries. So this is our dynamic.
The third angle is our different generations of Chinese consumers attitude towards the autopilot is not the same, we take a look at all levels of great interest to not be too far, but the feeling is more obvious after 90 the younger generations go backwards, the higher the acceptance of everyone autopilot, this fact is obvious.
The main reason we think this is a relatively young concept of modern, more receptive to new things, acceptance of new things higher, like the first, like, deft, vibrato short video category, which is generations, 60,70,80,90 and asked him, you most often use online socialWhich one, which is multiple choice, obviously feel young wide variety of applications, it is used more widely than older people.
We want to buy a car with the change of generations of those who constitute it will be beneficial to promote the development of automatic driving, this is our country doing research last year, 100 people inside a car after accounting for this case 00 1.6 percentage accounted for 25.1 percentage after 90, 80, accounted for 46.5 percentage, 20.4 percentage has dropped to 70, 60 before lower, we expect 100 people to buy a car after 00 years accounted for 21.8 percentage, will account for 90 to 47.5 percentage, the two may add up to 2 / 3,2 / 3 is after 90.00, these people are relatively high acceptance of new things, from the perspective of generations also will constitute a strong impetus to our automated the development of driving.
we would like from the perspective of three Chinese consumer is a contrast with foreign consumers, our strong preference, the second we dynamically changing, from the third generation of point of view, but will Change. We do not seek such as 60, 50, 70 have accepted this thing, as long as 90, 00 after accepting the autopilot, over time, it will change. This is from the consumer’s point of view.
The second we do from the perspective of urban form with you to share.
autonomous vehicles, we do it two-dimensional, sideways dimension of the urban population size from small to large, vertical Derby population density of the city from low to high. We have 10,000 people per square kilometer in place, draw a line, vertical bar on the left of this population of 5 million, we feel the top right corner of the urban population of over five million, the population density of 10,000 people per square kilometer than local, which is the most suitable autopilot, you go to work because parking is extremely inconvenient. High population density after the home is not easy parking, parking is more convenient units, such a place it needs to cars that drive themselves. For example, the State Information Center, you work, you go there after a command to stop the car drove off it, send advance after finishing things out a command car came, then you go, this will need to autopilot, you need more than L4 the car can even L5.
“adaption” refers to a population scale, but low population density areas, places like Los Angeles, low population density, large scale, likeIn some places in our country, the population density is high, the size of the population is high, it is time to adapt. The population size is also small, population size is also small, basically not suitable autopilot, which we look at from the perspective of urban form.
China’s urban population density is generally higher than in developed countries, where in Europe the United States almost one square kilometers inhabited probably about 3,000 people, everyone thought Japan is relatively high, in fact, lower than Japan, we, in over 5700 person, one square kilometers, our country is more than 8880 one square kilometer, it was a place to live, cities and towns. Higher than our Taiwan is 10,000 one square kilometer, a little higher in Korea, 15,000 people, because a lot of people who live in South Korea, Seoul, Seoul this place high population density, which is a.
This is what we do a few pictures, we look very interesting, we compare each city, 100 kilometers of cross-London, 100 kilometers Blue is Greater London area, the general population density, many places do not live in London where the highest one square kilometer was 21,000; this is tokyo, tokyo’s high density than London, where the highest 33,000, basically there is no space; this is New York, New York, Manhattan’s density is very, one square kilometer in 108,000 people, you work car no place to stop, the highest pillar, a pillar that represents the number of occupants, which is relatively high one square kilometer, the density of our nation Shanghai par with New York, 77,000 people so, one square kilometers, and it is particularly high pillars, on the Huangpu River, are very much the east coast of the West Bank, Shanghai is red, blue Kunshan these places, the density is very high. This is Shanghai panorama, a high not the same as New York, New York, a pillar is particularly high, Shanghai is a lot of pillars are high, a lot of places one square kilometer, has a large number of people living in it. Such a place, parking not work, go to work and more work will not do, no place to stop, so it is after the autopilot development, it is very good scene, which is Beijing’s chart. I do not look at others.
another form of our country is the city of the pie, our country might follow the original Soviet science, the country with the Beijing school, three-ring Ring Ring, Beijing has seven rings, a ring of thousands kilometers, which is a basic shape. Then bring this form elsewhere in Chengdu, Wuhan, probably, too, are Link, which brings a knotIf that is our average commute distance, in fact, not very long, the average American commute one-way distance of 25.6 kilometers, on a trip, we go to work is 13 kilometers Beijing, Shanghai almost two dozen km trip you go to work, you driving a car share price is very, very expensive, because for the moment, there are few families buy private cars autopilot, at least twenty years also less likely, the price can not stand, is mainly used to replace the autopilot driver It is shared, which is very beneficial for our country. This is the percentage: Beijing about 32 percent of people commuting distance of 5 km below, 31 percent of people in the 5-15 km, like Shenzhen have 51 percentage of people within less than 5 km, this hit a car is very convenient, from the city this is a form of angle.
The second population size, we have a high density, the second large-scale, world population more than 5 million mega-cities around the world a total of 86, our 21 countries, more than 5 million more than the population of the city . Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Tianjin and so together, probably this is the case.
add up to 20 developed countries, China and developed countries, which together have 41 cities, there is the less developed countries. Tokyo is 3800 plus Yokohama, Seoul over 2400, New York, more than 2100, add up to 20 cities, is 220 million people, our country is 21 220 million people, with the number of autopilot for so many countries together with one of our country It is the same, but our population density is higher than them.
future past population to large cities concentrate, will focus on the future, this figure illustrates anything, no matter what kind of country, sparsely populated or, densely populated or whatever, to the big city. Like Japan’s largest city of Tokyo, the slope of the constant high, people to Tokyo to go, South Korea to Seoul to go, that is, to the largest which city, France, Egypt is no exception, this is our previous study probably change 60 years of the city, are go to the big city, our country is the same. You can take a look.
In 2010 this figure by 2020. This is more realistic map, Beijing, Shanghai population are concentrated in the last two years to go down this is a result of man-made policies to bring administrative means. Means in front of these market-oriented, market trend is to go this way.
Therefore,I think we will go to the next step in this population focus, he was not with us, these countries their urbanization, essentially complete, and our country is now only about 60 percentage urbanization, there are a lot of people want to go to the city and voluntarily go to all the big cities, big city resources, high income levels.
we would like from the perspective of urban form also, taking into account that it will be a great role in our country’s government building on autopilot, we just Korea experts say, autopilot needs intelligent transportation, communication needs, require high-precision positioning, high-precision map, big data, cloud computing, which we regarded it called the infrastructure.
our biggest advantage is to concentrate on doing big things, our per capita GDP is only $ 10,000, but the level of our infrastructure around the world are leading. So I think there’s infrastructure, China will certainly forefront, this is an urban form.
about the future of the scene is closed to semi-open state and then to open, something like a scene from passenger to cargo are the same autopilot, valet parked car, the semi-open to open, Finally the whole scene, the truck is the same, probably this path.
This is the situation of foreign institutions predict, he predicted L4 and L5 of the Sino-US car Organon together to reach 81 million by 2030, China’s 3310, 2710 European Union, the United States 2080, which they forecast data, autopilot size of the potential of our country first, which is no doubt, from the development of urban form we have not said industry, our industry could develop a little faster. So China is the biggest potential. Sales per year, compared to other countries, China, is high, but this is only a potential for development, mean that China will certainly be faster than other developing countries. Go forward I think there are two issues that must be addressed.
The first problem is the mixed line of cars and trucks, two cars and lines China’s behavior we are all basically grab the road, no one to give way, everyone is struggling, especially three or four channels and a tract of time, the difference will be 10 cm squeeze, this time the autopilot how to design? You can also squeeze, every day it continues to accidents. Another automatic vehicle and pedestrian, I drove up this morning, in the case of green light, bicycle red lights do not go wrong direction. Autopilot future of our test carCan not have traffic lights, traffic regulations by people, bicycles according to regulations when this job. This time is concerned, they are more developed than our country comply with traffic awareness, in fact, is behind a sense of law, our potential is enormous, in which we have to solve the two, they can make a real L4, L5 car have a better development.
This is what I share with you a little view on autopilot, thank you!